A New Kind of Fish |
My friends at the Biodiversity Research Center (http://specifysoftware.org/Informatics) are experts in modeling the sudden changes that occur when an ecosystem is disrupted by the arrival of a new foreign species. I'm sure they don't have a plan for modeling the Linux ecosystem, but if they did, they would also have scientific way of telling us the times they-are-a-changin'.
As you probably know, the foreign species that appeared recently in the Linux ecosystem is Novell. High-tech magazines are full of commentaries describing the possible impact Novell might have on the Linux industry, but it is starting to look like the area where Novell presents the greatest mismatch for the indigenous Linux companies is in the game of brand promotion.
Novell learned the PR game battling big guns like Microsoft and IBM, and they have a very extensive machine in place for projecting their presence. A company like Red Hat, on the other hand, climbed to prominence in the more lackadaisical world of volunteer-based distros and fellow fledgling companies spread thin on resources. Red Hat used to look like a big and powerful Linux company until Novell came along. They probably still are as powerful as they ever were, but they don't look as powerful anymore because Novell is doing a much better job of attaching themselves to Linux in the news. And if Red Hat doesn't watch out, they may find one day that they aren't as powerful as they used to be, because when people think of Linux, they will think of someone else.
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In the highly-charged, political atmosphere of the open source movement, the big, well-funded companies behave like big, well-funded political candidates. They use every opportunity to define their position, and they never let any attack go unanswered. Novell's rise in the Linux world started with their purchase of Suse and Ximian, but they followed up this initial investment with a careful strategy of always acting to place themselves in the center of any possible Linux discussion.
Novell has been remarkably successful at portraying themselves as the defenders of Linux. Part of this role was handed to them by the desperate SCO group, who you have probably already heard too much about. (SCO obtained their rights to the Unix operating system from Novell, and Novell has very publically used the original contracts to challenge SCO's claims on behalf of the Linux community.)
The other part of Novell's success, however, comes from just being alert and investing resources at the perfect moment. For instance, when Microsoft recently unveiled their "Get the Facts" campaign, with a series of pro-Microsoft (sometimes misleading) arguments on the benefits of Windows, Novell was quick to create a whole website called "Unbending the Truth: Things Microsoft Hopes You Won't Notice." Red Hat didn't create a website, and it is unclear from their press section whether they even have an official position regarding Microsoft's assertions.
In fact, Red Hat's press section is pretty skimpy all around. As of this writing, Novell had 49 press releases and news links in their press section for the month of November, most of them dealing with Linux, and several dealing specifically with the Microsoft's controversial claims on the virtues of Windows. Headlines include eye-catching entries such as "Novell Hits Back at Ballmer's anti-Linux Memo." The Red Hat press section, on the other hand, has only one entry for the whole month of November: "Red Hat Establishes Beijing Business Practice."
Don't look now, Red Hat, but a new kind of fish just swam into your lagoon.
